Trend Following

Here’s how to build substantial wealth

With Trend Following.

 

Even if you don’t have a lot of trading capital,

or any experience trading futures.

 

Dear Friend,

 

By now, you’ve probably learned a bit about trend following, and you may have even learned a few trading strategies and systems along the way.

 

If you’ve been checking out the emails I’ve sent you, you already have a foundation of knowledge from which to build on.

 

However, if you’ve really been paying attention, you may realize that trend following may not be as easy as it first seems.

 

Unfortunately, over 90% of all futures traders are unprofitable.

 

And you may also realize that a completely systematic approach to trading futures requires a lot of capital.

 

I’m here to tell you that there is a solution!

 

The problem is,  you will always have losing trades, and you will likely have more losing trades than winning trades, because futures trading is a negative sum game.

 

One side of a futures trade will make money, the other side will lose money, and then both sides must pay a commission and may experience slippage on the execution of their orders.

 

So, how do you go from having limited capital to becoming a successful futures trader?

 

Well, first, let me tell you a story…

 

Twenty years ago, I started out where you may be today….I had a small chunk of change, was making decent money at my job, but really wanted to do something different.

 

Since watching the movie “Wall Street” with Charlie Sheen and Michael Douglas, I had always had a fascination with the markets.  In fact before I started my job as a commercial real estate appraiser, I almost became a stockbroker.

 

Fascinated with the markets, I subscribed to Investors Business Daily, and some newsletters, and read “How to Make Money in Stocks.”  I bought some charting software, and tried trading stocks.  Won some, lost some, made no money.

 

Then I received in the mail some propaganda related to trading futures with spread trading ideas, so I opened a futures trading account with $10,000.  I think I made a couple trades, and lost money.

 

Around that time I also read “Market Wizards” and then “The New Market Wizards” by Jack Schwager.

 

Within both books there were a number of interviews with futures traders who employed a trend following approach to trading futures.

 

One of these was Richard Dennis, who reputedly took $400 (or $1,600, depending on your source), and grew it to $200 million.  He was known as the Prince of the Pits.

 

Dennis had reportedly left the trading pits and to trade from an office, and then went on to trade a group of traders that he referred to as “the Turtles.”  The Turtles subsequently went on to generate millions in profits for Dennis, and then as money managers.

 

So, then I am reading my recent copy (at the time) of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine, and I see this ad by a chap by the name of Russell Sands, who billed himself as a former Turtle, and was now teaching the system.

 

Sands was selling a seminar for $2,500, or if you just wanted the video tapes of a seminar, you could buy them for $2,000.  I jumped all over it!

 

Ok, so I eagerly watched the videos and read through the accompanying manual, and off I went!

 

My first couple trades were in the meat markets…Live Cattle and Live Hogs (now Lean Hogs).  Both of these were short trades, and in each case, I traded the old Mid-Am contracts so I could trade multiple contracts.

 

So, after a week or two, the trades are going in my favor, and I get a call from my broker, who subsequently advises me to cover my short positions and go long.

 

Fortunately, I ignored the dumbass and the trades continued to move in my favor.

 

 

You can see the chart of the cattle futures contract from back then below.

 

cattle futures 1994

cattle futures 1994

 

 

 

I sold cattle futures short in early April, and the market plunged, as you can see.  Ultimately, I think I made about $4,000 or $5,000 on this trade in a couple months.

 

Then, the coffee market popped up on my radar.  At this point, I was still short cattle and hogs, and my account was generally too small to be trading coffee, due to the size of that contract, and the volatility in the market.

 

Well, in late April of 1994 I bought my first coffee contract, and a few days later, I bought a second contract.

 

I was working off of Turtle System I, the short term version of the Turtle Trading System, and that’s about it.  Otherwise, I completely deviated from the system, like the rookie I was.

 

Coffee really took off, and I bought THREE MORE CONTRACTS!  A complete rookie mistake.  Ahhh, greed!  I had dollar signs in my eyes!

 

So, one day, a Monday, I stroll into my appraisal office to find a message on my answering machine (do you remember those?) from my broker.

 

In a panicked tone he said “Scott, please call me as soon as you get this message…the coffee market is called to open 30 cents higher!”

 

This was also pre-electronic markets.  Pre-opening calls were based upon the balance, or imbalance, of buy and sell orders before the open.

 

In any case, a 30 cent move in coffee futures is worth over $10,000 per contract!

 

If you did the math, by now I owned 5 contracts, so I stood to make over $50,000 at the open!

 

The reason was that there was a frost in the coffee growing fields in Brazil.

 

Naturally, my broker was calling to advise me to sell, because that’s what brokers do…always picking tops and bottoms.

 

Instead…

 

I told him to buy me FIVE more contracts

 

You see, I had studied the coffee market a little bit during the rise before the frost hit.  There had been some threats of cold weather, and in the past when a frost hit, coffee prices went to the moon.

 

So, the coffee market went crazy, and went up for a few days before settling down again.

 

A couple weeks later, another frost hit, and the market went to the moon.

 

Coffee Futures 1994

Coffee Futures 1994

 

 

Ultimately, I made about $200,000 on the trade, as I waited for the Turtle trading system trailing stop to get triggered.

 

As you can imagine, I was on cloud nine…28 years old and I just made $200,000 in less than four months of futures trading.

 

I continued to employ the Turtle Trading System that year, and hit a few more decent trades, but then I started to deviate.

 

And then I blew it.

 

I thought I was the next great trading whiz, and I thought the stock market was due for a big bear market.

 

All the CNBC analysts were saying the same thing.  Interest rates were going up because inflation was starting to heat up.

 

But, every time I tried to sell the market short, it just kept going up.

 

This went on for months, and I was losing equity fast.  I had also promised my wife at the time that I would save some of my coffee winnings so we could buy some land to build a house.

 

Unfortunately, I had also stopped doing appraisal work (cuz I never liked it) because I was so fascinated by trading.  Huge mistake!

 

By around 1997, I was essentially done trading futures on my own.  I literally went from cloud 9 in 1994, to extreme lows by now.

 

However, I did end up with an opportunity to work in the business a bit as a broker and then for a hedge fund and commodity trading advisor firm, Brandywine Asset Management.

 

That was a cool job.

 

While working at Brandywine, I was working for Mike Dever, who was on the cutting edge of systematic trading.

 

His Benchmark program traded multiple strategies in over 100 futures markets, very unusual at the time.  Dever was also one of the first investors with John W. Henry, a trend follower, who now owns the Boston Red Sox.

 

I worked the late Asian, early European shift, so I had the opportunity to trade in some different markets from what I was used to.

 

One of the other guys on the trading desk had worked for Campbell & Company in Baltimore, one of the pioneers in the managed futures business, and quite successful as a trend follower.  Campbell now has over $4 billion under management.

 

It was cool sharing trading experiences and trading those exotic markets.

 

Unfortunately, my marriage was a wreck, and these hours, plus a 90 minute one way commute were no help.  I had to leave.

 

And with that, I was officially out of the futures trading business.

 

 

Fast forward to a couple years ago…I’ve been long since divorced, re-married, still out of the futures trading profession, but itching to get back in.

 

I got my broker’s license, and hooked up with a broker I had worked with before heading over to Brandywine back in the 1990’s.

 

After a few months, I knew it was a bad fit, but I learned one valuable lesson….

 

It is true that most futures traders are unprofitable.

 

Not only did the broker tell me he never had a single client who was profitable in the long run in his 30 years of business, I could see by how his clients traded that none would ever make money.

 

Most of his clients had no real plan, were constantly trading in and out of the markets,  and my broker friend really wasn’t good at trading either.

 

Yet, at the same time, he is a multi-millionaire who lives in Hawaii!

 

Just like the Dukes in Trading Places.  The broker gets a commission whether their client makes money or loses money.  And, of course, there is a sucker born every minute!

 

I wanted to make a difference, so I went back to my research and started testing ideas again.

 

Combined with my research into the strategies of some of the most successful trend following traders and my own testing I’ve been able to develop a trend following program that can compete with that of any of the big names in the world of managed futures.

 

 

This is a completely turnkey trend following program that is available right now along with my new Platinum Trend Following Course.

 

 

You see, my goal is to pass along all of the knowledge I’ve gained over the last twenty years to people like you who simply want to have a better life.  And, as I help more people achieve their goals, I will be able to attain my own as well.

 

Most people are stuck in jobs they don’t want so they look to the futures markets as a way to pursue their financial dreams.   Or, maybe they just want to just build wealth so they can retire earlier.

 

Unfortunately, most fail.

 

The biggest reason why they fail is that they are uninformed, or simply don’t have a plan.

 

Seriously, why would any of these successful money managers bother to share their secrets with you or me?

 

Well, Russell Sands originally began to teach the Turtle Trading System to help build up his own business.  None of the other Turtles were happy that he shared his knowledge, and some tried to discredit him.

 

Unfortunately, he has continued to teach the Turtle Trading system even while its performance has decayed substantially.

 

How do I know?  Because for years I have tracked the performance of many commodity trading advisors, including the former Turtles, and one of their mentors, William Eckhardt.

 

Over the last five years, most of them are underwater, and clients have pulled their assets in search of better performance.  One of the former Turtles even closed his doors for good in 2013 during his third consecutive losing year.

 

I’ve also conducted substantial testing on the strategies, and this testing also reveals that  during the last few years, the systems have performed TERRIBLY.

 

With that said, I looked for ways to improve the systems, and I studied other trend followers.  For instance, while most of the former Turtle traders had negative returns in 2013, long term trend followers Mulvaney Capital Management and Dunn Capital Management were up 43% and 34% respectively.

 

Incredibly, both backed up those performances with 67% and 35% gains in 2014!

 

What were they doing differently?

 

I found this information on a site called Autumngold.com.  It provides the performance histories for hundreds of commodity trading advisors.

 

One of the cool things about the site is that there are brief descriptions of the strategies employed, as well as the portfolio balancing for many of the these strategies.

 

When reviewing this data, the light bulb went off…I discovered why there was such a difference in performance, and that led me to a new area of research, which I will ultimately share with you in my Platinum Trend Following Course.

 

So let me tell you a little bit more about this course.

 

This program is the culmination of years of research into trading strategies for the futures markets.

 

Not only have I studied the Turtles and other trend followers, I have conducted substantial research into shorter term strategies as well.

 

Why?  Because that is what most new traders want to learn, and I’ve also been exposed to strategies employed by some of the most successful short-term traders in the business, including Monroe Trout (featured in “The New Market Wizards.”)

 

However, after years of research, I’ve pretty much concluded that the best way to build wealth over the long run, and still have the ability to enjoy life, is to employ a trend following approach to trading in the futures markets.

 

With that said, here is what I’ve included in my new video training course…The Platinum Trend Following Course

 

First, we cover the basics of futures trading, components of a trend following strategy, and then the Turtle Trading Systems.

 

While the Turtle Trading Systems have not performed that well in recent years, they did do well in 2014, and they provide the foundation for your trend following program.

 

Along with the mechanical systems, I will cover in detail the Discretionary Criteria that was also taught by Dennis and Eckhardt to the Turtles.

 

You see, it was never their intention to create a bunch of trading robots.  Dennis specifically wanted each individual to add their own flair to their trading.

 

Therefore, not only did he teach them the mechanical system rules, he taught them how to monitor price action and market sentiment as well.

 

Next, we are going to put the systems to the test, and then go through the process of improving them.

 

We are also going to study the performance results of a number of trend following Commodity Trading Advisors to see what strategies have worked well in more recent years.  This will give us a better understanding of how to make even further improvements to our systems.

 

Once we have completed that process, we are going to focus on building an effective portfolio for deploying our trend following program.

 

Ultimately, you will be provided with a turnkey trend following program that crushes the Turtles and just about all of the other trend following programs out there.

 

Those are pretty bold words, but that is what I set out to do, and I’ve achieved that result in my testing.

 

You really will be amazed at how simple the program is, and why it performs so well.

 

To be a successful trader, you need to do what other people are uncomfortable doing.”

 

This is exactly what the program does, and why it differentiates itself from what other traders are doing.

 

The real secret of this program is the construction of the portfolio and the willingness to employ different strategies in different sectors.

 

Most trend followers are unwilling to do this.  I don’t know if they are lazy or what, but they all want to employ the same systems across every market.  But, not all markets are alike.

 

I will explain this point when we build our portfolio.

 

Now, I realize that many people do not have the capital necessary to employ a systematic trend following program.

 

Therefore, I presented another module that will show you how to trade with discretion by identifying chart patterns that put the odds in your favor a bit more than the typical trend following trade, and with lower risk.

 

I’ve identified eleven key price patterns that will allow you to jump on board an existing trend, and allow you to do so with much tighter stop losses.

 

I will also identify the markets that you can even trade with a much smaller account so you can still exploit these patterns when they arise.

 

However, if you still think a systematic approach is the way to go for you, I’ve included a bonus report that will show you how to pool your assets with friends and family so that you can have the capital necessary to trade systematically.

 

Not only that, this report will teach you how to earn income by managing those assets!  You’ll actually have the foundation in place to then become a PROFESSIONAL TRADER.

 

This is a similar approach that managed futures legend Bill Dunn of Dunn Capital Management undertook to start his business over 40 years ago.

 

By pooling his assets with 19 other partners he raised $137,000 to start his business.

 

He now has assets under management of over $1 billion, and he earned substantial fees over the last couple of years by nailing big trends!

 

So, let me summarize again what this course offers:

 

  • A full presentation of the entire Turtle Trading System, including the discretionary criteria.   As a bonus, I am even going to walk you through each Turtle style trade I took back in 1994.
  • Trading system testing and development with TradersStudio software.  I will present you with details regarding my own trading research, and you will be provided with a Turnkey trend following program that you can get started with immediately (assuming you have the right amount of capital!).  I am even going to provide you with the system codes for TradersStudio so you can conduct your own testing.
  • Understanding Portfolio Heat – Not everyone has the same tolerance or appetite for risk.  Therefore, you need to determine how much risk you should take to achieve the rate of return you are after.  This report will teach you how.
  • 11 key chart patterns that can boost your bottom line as a trend follower, or can simply be used as a standalone approach to trading futures.
  • How to succeed as a trend follower with a small account.
  • How to build a professional futures trading business built around a trend following program.  Learn how to pool your assets with friends and family, and get paid to manage their assets without the need for any licensing or registration.

 

Your Investment

 

By now you are probably wondering what this is going to cost you.  Before I get to that, let’s talk about what some of these other trading programs available can cost.

 

Russell Sands has been teaching the Turtle Trading System in a seminar and in videos for decades now, and recently has charged as much as $6,000 to attend a weekend seminar.

 

Consider another site that offers education about trend following, and includes a system, where the costs range from $2,000 to $3,000.  Awfully nice website though!

 

And then there is one of the trading academies that offers week long courses for a minimum of $5,000 to teach you the basics of day trading!

 

Now consider my original investment in the Turtle Trading System back in 1994…$2,000.

 

Then, consider that I’ve spent countless hours studying, researching and testing trading strategies that I’ve learned from friends and acquaintances who work for some of the most successful traders in the world.

 

Ultimately, you are going to get my most up to date research on building a trend following program to build substantial wealth.

 

And you get all of this for a mere $99.  Yes, you read that right… $99.

 

So, why am I presenting it for such a low investment?

 

Well, I’ve been presented with another business opportunity that will allow me to move on to the lifestyle I prefer, which is one that gets me out of the office and in front of people more.

 

However, it makes no sense to keep this information all to myself.  My goal is to help people truly understand what trend following is all about.  I believe it is one of the best ways for the average person to build substantial wealth!

 

With that in mind, I just figured it would be nice to receive a minor amount for the effort I’ve put into conduct all this research and presenting it in this course as I step away from futures trading once again.

 

So yes, your investment in this program is just $99.
To gain access to the course in just a few minutes, just click on the Paypal button below.

 

All the best,

 

Scott Cole

Trend Following University

 




 

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