We are halfway through 2016 already, so I thought I would check in with an update on trend following performance through the first half of the year. To say the least, it’s been a wild ride so far.
After a somewhat difficult 2015 in which the majority of trend followers were flat or down on the year, 2016 has also presented a challenging environment due to the whipsawing we’ve seen in equities. However, things appear to have changed in June as early results suggest that many trend followers posted solid gains on the month.
One of these is trading legend William Eckhardt, known for his participation in the training of the Turtles back in the mid-1980s. Echkardt’s Standard Plus program is up over 18% on the year after posting a 9% gain in June. Eckhardt trades a mix described as short term and medium term trend following systems (visit Autumngold.com for results).
Not to be outdone, Mulvaney Capital, a trend follower who employs a longer term system, posted a 27% gain in June to run their return for the year up to 15%. Mulvaney Capital is run by Paul Mulvaney, and currently has $68 million under management.
Former Turtle R. Jerry Parker, who runs Chesapeake Capital, posted a nearly 5% gain to bring his return up to flat for the year. Chesapeake currently manages $175 million in assets within its Diversified program.
Transtrend, a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) based in the Netherlands, also posted a strong gain in June of just over 7.5% and is now up 8% on the year.
As far as basic systems are concerned, the Turtle systems rebounded somewhat in June after several dismal months in a row. Given the performance of Mulvaney in June, I was not surprised to see that longer term systems performed very well.
The major movers in June have included interest rate markets, precious metals and the Japanese Yen.
After breaking out in early February to one year highs after trading in a narrow range for months, the Yen has traded in a steady, if choppy uptrend that has accelerated in recent days.
The recent Brexit vote could be a significant game changer in the world of managed futures. If other European countries follow suit, you can bet there will be continued volatility in the futures markets. In the long run, this could also bring managed futures, and trend following, back into view as a significant alternative asset class.
For individuals interested in learning more about trading, I am adding all new educational contact at my new site… The College of Trading. All of this information is free, and will ultimately include proprietary information that was only available to paying students in the past. Check it out!